The variant hunters are pouring over the new data, and have identified a couple of suspect sub-lineages - as-yet undesignated:

- XBB.1.16 with a Spike E748Q mutation (18%). This combination is globally unique to Okinawa from late-June, and shows the cleanest growth curve. However it has not been detected in the most recent week or so of sample data from Okinawa, which is surprising. Perhaps ("hopefully"), it might cause more severe disease, but have a transmission disadvantage? If so, humanity can perhaps breathe a sigh of releif, and get back to rolling the dice on other mutation combinations.

- XBB.1.16 with an E:P71S mutation (10%). This combination has been fairly common in several Japanese prefectures (as well as Okinawa), so this one seems a little less likely.

For Okinawa, under 30 samples had been shared covering the recent wave there, naking it very difficult to draw any conclusions. Suddenly a further 400+ samples have been shared in recent days. This massive dump has revealed that the EG.5.* "Eris" variant (11%) has not been signifcant in Okinawa.

Instead, it seems the wave in Okinawa was driven by XBB.1.16.* "Arcturus" (38%).